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Stabaek welcome Valeranga for this OBOS-Ligaen round 28 battle at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua very early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the 2nd tier of Norwegian football. The level of this league is below average by European standards – for a 2nd tier I mean. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of excellent quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative opportunity here! Both teams played in the Eliteserien, 1st tier, last season taking the same number of points – 29. Yes, at the moment Valeranga are the best team in this league. They have taken 62 points and have a score difference of 76:29. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is somewhat lower. Their number of expected goals (xG) is "only" 68.43. Most importantly, they have already secured promotion back to Eliteserien. As a result, they might not be 100% motivated, as is often the case in this situation.. Moreover, their head coach rotating his squad – perhaps even heavily – would not surprise anyone. They have many young, talented players – eager to prove their skills.. Stabaek have played pretty well this season - and are in 5th place with 42 points. They, too, have a strong offense - with a lot of indiviual skill - and have scored 55 goals in this league. Their defensive structure, however, has not been great and they have conceded 50 goals. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) in "only", 43.14 though and should be able to defend much better. Their defenders should avoid giving too risky passes near their own goal. Stabaek need points to secure their place in the top-6 – in the Promotion Playoffs! They must be hugely motivated here! Taking this factor, and the big home advantage into account, they deserve to be slim favourites here! As the bookies disagree with me, we will take the Stabaek +0.5 goals handicap! Let's not forget that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Valeranga are the bigger team here – but only by a very small margin. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 13 million euros, which is a little too low.. The Stabaek squad is valued at around 12.50 million – which is slightly too low..
Stabaek have won three of their last four matches – and three in a row in this league. In their last game they beat Kongsvinger 3-1 on the road as underdogs. However, the final score does flatter Stabaek. Before this they lost to a team from Eliteserien, KFUM Oslo, 2-3 at home in the NM Cup as very clear underdogs. However, Stabaek recorded more goal attempts and shots on goal. Their defensive issues cost them a lot – once again. In round 26 Stabaek were excellent, beating Levanger 2-1 away from home. They recorded 10 more goal attempts than the hosts and also had many more shots on goal! Moreover, Stabaek generated much more in xG. Stabaek were only marginal favourites in this game on the betting market. In round 25 Stabaek were great, easily beating Sogndal 2-0 at home. They allowed the visitors only one shot on target and had eight themselves! I was impressed with their defence in this clash. Valeranga have won two of their last four matches. In their last game they deservedly defeated Egersund at home as big favourites. They deserved to win but the final score hugely flatters them! They recorded only two more shots on goal - 5-3. Before this they lost to Fredriskstad 0-1 after penalties in the NM Cup. They were the favourites on the betting market at home but for some reason their offense was lame and recorded only four shots on goal – that was still more than Fredriskstad managed though.. Before this they easily beat a lowly team, Mjondalen, currently in 2nd-last place, 4-2 at home as very big favourites according to the bookies.